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Final Results for the 2011 New Zealand General Election and Referendum
March 2012
Final Results after Special Votes
The General Election of 26th November 2011 was New Zealand’s 50th since general elections began in 1853, and the sixth election conducted under the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system. This research paper summarises differences between the provisional and final election results, shows trends in the share of the vote and seats over time, and analyses the demographic makeup of the 50th Parliament. It concludes with a discussion of the results of the referendum on the voting system.
Following the counting of special votes and the release of the official results for the 2011 New Zealand General Election, there are eight political parties and 121 members represented in the 50th Parliament. An overhang of one seat has been created by the Māori Party winning three of the seven Māori electorates; it would otherwise have been entitled to two seats based on its 1.43% share of the party vote.
Table 1 shows trends in the number of candidates, seats, and parties since 1996. It shows, for example, that the number of electorate candidates and total candidates contesting the 2011 election was the lowest in MMP elections to date. The number of MPs per capita in 2011 was 2.7 per 100,000 people. This level of representation ranks New Zealand just below the OECD average for lower chambers of 2.8 MPs per 100,000 people. When only the 15 OECD members with unicameral parliaments are considered, New Zealand ranks as the 5th lowest in terms of MPs per capita.
Table 2 shows the impact of the 241,518 valid special votes – counted after the provisional results of Election Day – on the final allocation of seats. Special votes (accounting for about 10% of the votes cast in New Zealand general elections) usually result in only minor changes to the parties’ final percentage share of the party vote. For example, in 2011 special votes saw incremental increases in the share of the party vote for the Labour Party, the Māori Party, the Mana Party and the ACT Party without altering their provisional seat entitlement.
However, special votes have had substantial impacts on the final election outcome. In the 2011 election the National Party’s final share of the party vote dropped 0.68 percentage points to 47.31%, while the Green Party’s share rose 0.44 percentage points to 11.06%. This resulted in the National Party’s initial allocation of 60 seats being reduced to a final entitlement of 59 seats, and the Green Party’s initial allocation of 13 seats being increased to a final entitlement of 14 seats. Both changes affected the number of list MPs in each party, although the total number of MPs in Parliament was not affected.
Figure 1 summarises the impact of special votes on the number of seats in MMP elections since 1999. In 1999, for example, the impact of special votes meant five parties and 14 seats were affected, resulting in the Labour-Alliance majority coalition government becoming a minority coalition government. Special votes in 1999 also affected the Green Party – which on election night had no seats in Parliament – entitling the Greens to seven seats (including an electorate seat). In 2005 special votes reduced the total number of MPs in Parliament from 122 to 121 and thereby reduced the threshold required for confidence and supply for the governing coalition parties.
Figure 1: The Impact of Special Votes on Seats 1996-2011
When the 2011 election is compared with the 2008 election, the National, Green, and NZ First parties increased both their share of the party vote and their total seats, while the Labour, Māori and ACT parties saw both a decrease in their share of the party vote and their seats in the House (Table 3). The National Party increased its party vote by 2.38 percentage points above its 2008 election result and gained one seat, the Green Party gained 4.34 percentage points and five seats, and NZ First gained 2.52% and eight seats. The Labour Party lost 6.51 percentage points and nine seats, the Māori Party lost 0.96 percentage points and two seats, and ACT New Zealand lost 2.58 percentage points and four seats. Although United Future lost 0.27 percentage points, it did not lose any seats. The Mana Party did not contest the 2008 election; Jim Anderton's Progressive Party did not contest the 2011 election.
Party Vote Share and Parties in Parliament: 1981-2011
Under First-Past-the-Post (FPP) elections, from 1981 to 1993, the National Party averaged 40.3% of the vote while the Labour Party averaged 40.0%. Under Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) elections, from 1996 to 2011, the National Party has averaged 36.1% of the party vote which compares to the 35.1% average for the Labour Party. Figure 2 shows that the National Party’s share of the party vote in 2011 (47.3%) is the highest it has achieved under MMP and, since 1981, was only surpassed by its 1990 election result when it achieved 47.8%. The National Party’s total of 59 seats is also the highest it has achieved under MMP. The Labour Party’s share of the vote in 2011 (27.5%) is the lowest it has achieved in any MMP election to date – indeed, it is the lowest share for the Labour Party in any election since 1928 when it received 26.2%. Across MMP elections to date, for the other current parliamentary parties who have contested more than one election, the average party vote share has been: 7.4% for the NZ First Party; 7.0% for the Green Party; 4.4% for ACT New Zealand, 2.0% for United Future, and 2.0% for the Māori Party.
The six minor parties gaining parliamentary representation in 2011 in total gained 21.8% share of the party vote (see Figure 3). The total vote share for the minor parties gaining representation in Parliament has doubled under MMP compared to FPP elections – from an average of 12% over the FPP elections from 1981 to 1993 to an average of 24% under MMP elections from 1996 to 2011.
Figure 2: Party Vote Share for Major and Minor Parliamentary Parties
In the 2011 election, the two major parties won 93 seats between them (77% of the seats) from 75% of the total party vote (see Figure 2). Under First-Past-the-Post elections, from 1981 to 1993, representation in Parliament was dominated by the two major parties, Labour and National. On average, these two parties captured 98% of the seats in Parliament from a combined average of 80% of the vote from 1981 to 1993. In MMP elections between 1996 and 2011, Labour and National together have won three-quarters (75%) of the seats in parliament from a combined average of 71% of the total party vote.
Under FPP elections from 1981 to 1993 minor parties that gained parliamentary representation won about two seats on average each election – about 2% of the seats from an average of 12% of the vote. In MMP elections, from 1996 to 2011, minor parties that gained parliamentary representation won, combined, around 31 seats on average each election – or 25% of the seats from about 24% of the vote. In the 2011 election, the minor parliamentary parties won 28 of the 121 seats (23%) from 22% of the vote – slightly below the average seat and vote shares for the minor parliamentary parties under MMP (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Seats Won by Major and Minor Parliamentary Parties
The Electorates
Sixty eight of the 70 electorate candidates who won their seats on election night were confirmed as the electorate representative after the counting of special votes. In Christchurch Central special votes saw Nicky Wagner (National) win Christchurch Central after the election night tie with Brendon Burns (Labour). In Waitakere, Paula Bennett (National) held the seat with a margin of nine votes after a judicial recount.
A majority of the electorates were won by the National Party which won 42 electorates, one more than their electorate total after the 2008 election. The National Party gained two electorates previously held by the Labour Party (Christchurch Central and Waimakariri), but lost the seat of West Coast-Tasman that it had previously won in 2008. The Labour Party won 22 electorates, one more than the number of electorates it won in 2008. The Labour Party lost two electorates to the National Party, but gained three previously held by other parties (West Coast-Tasman from National, Wigram from Jim Anderton’s Progressive, and Te Tai Tonga from the Māori Party). The Māori Party won three electorates in total, two less than it held following the 2008 election. The ACT and United Future parties won one electorate seat each, the same number as in 2008. The Mana Party won one electorate seat in 2011 – it did not contest the 2008 election. The Green Party and New Zealand First did not win any electorate seats.
Of 70 electorates, 49 winning candidates won with a majority (over 50%) of the valid electorate votes, while 21 electorates were won with a plurality (less than 50%) of the valid electorate votes. The electorate with the lowest share of the electorate (candidate) vote was Ohariu, where Peter Dunne (United Future) won with 38.6% of the electorate vote. The electorate with the highest share of the electorate (candidate) vote was Manukau East, where Ross Robertson (Labour) won with 77.1% of the electorate vote.
Table 4 below shows both the ten electorates with the highest winning margin (majority) over the second-placed candidate, and the ten electorates with the smallest winning margin. For example, the Helensville electorate had the largest winning margin (21,066), while Waitakere was the electorate with the smallest winning margin (9). The average winning margin and average electorate vote share were 8,088 and 55.6% respectively.
Demographic Makeup of the 50th Parliament
In 2011 2.25 million New Zealand voters elected 121 members of Parliament to represent their views and interests. One view of the representation of such interests emphasises representativeness – the degree of similarity between members of Parliament and the population as a whole, or whether Parliament can be seen as a microcosm of society.
As a proportional representation system, MMP ensures that voters’ party preferences are proportionally reflected in the party composition of Parliament. However, whether Parliament reflects the general composition of the New Zealand population – in terms of general demographic characteristics – is determined more by the political parties themselves, through their choice and ranking of candidates. Indirectly, however, MMP may help to increase the representativeness of Parliament by broadening the number and type of political parties that achieve representation. In turn these newer political parties may achieve representation by choosing candidates who appeal to the electorate on a variety of demographic characteristics such as gender, ethnicity, and age. Consequently, it is argued that “one central virtue of proportional systems is the claim that they are more likely to produce a Parliament which reflects the composition of the electorate”.
Figure 4 shows that on gender grounds, the representativeness of Parliament has increased significantly since the advent of MMP in 1996, although it still has some way to go before it reflects the gender balance in New Zealand society as a whole. There are 39 women MPs in the 50th Parliament, compared with the record 41 elected to the previous Parliament. Overall, women comprise almost one-third (32%) of the new Parliament.
Figure 4: Number and Share (%) of Women in Parliament 1981-2011
Internationally, this level of representation of women in Parliament places New Zealand among the top twenty-five countries on this measure. According to the Inter-Parliamentary Union, Rwanda (56%), Andorra (50%), Sweden (45%), and South Africa (45%) have the greatest proportions of women represented in their parliaments among the 188 countries surveyed. Germany (33%), Ecuador (32%), and Burundi (32%) have similar proportions of women to New Zealand represented in their parliaments.
On ethnicity grounds, the representativeness of Parliament has also increased significantly since the advent of MMP (see Figure 5). The new Parliament has 21 MPs who have self-identified as being of Māori descent, compared with 20 in the previous Parliament. Overall, MPs who identify as being of Māori descent comprise 17% of the Parliament, which compares to the 18% of the population identifying as being of Māori descent in the 2006 census.
The new Parliament has a record six MPs who identify as being of Pacific Peoples ethnicity, compared with five in the previous Parliament. Overall, MPs who identify as being of Pacific Peoples ethnicity comprise 5% of Parliament, which compares to the 7% of the population who identified as being of the Pacific Peoples ethnic group in the 2006 census.
Figure 5: MPs in Parliament by Ethnic Share 1981-2011
The new Parliament has five MPs who identify as being of Asian ethnicity, compared with six in the previous Parliament. Overall, MPs who identify as being of Asian ethnicity comprise 4% of the Parliament, which compares to the 9% of the population who identified as being of the Asian ethnic group in the 2006 census.
In terms of age, Figure 6 shows that those aged 18-29 years are underrepresented in the 50th Parliament, since this age group comprises over 21% of the New Zealand voting age population (VAP), but just 2% of the New Zealand Parliament. By contrast, the 40-49 and 50-59 age groups are over-represented in Parliament when compared to the general 18+ population. In generational terms, almost two-thirds (63%) of the 50th Parliament are ‘baby boomers’, over one-third (34%) are ‘generation X’, and 3% are from the generation born prior to World War Two (also known as the ‘silent generation’).
The median age of the 2008 Parliament is 51.0 years. The youngest MP is 26 years old – the oldest, 70 years.
Figure 6: The Composition of the 50th Parliament by Age Group
Table 5 below sets out the previous occupations of MPs as a share of successive Parliaments since 1990. In 2011 24 MPs (20% of all MPs) listed their previous occupation as ‘businessperson’ – usually the single biggest occupational category in New Zealand Parliaments, apart from 2008 when this category ranked as just the 4th largest. A further 16 MPs (13% of MPs) listed their previous occupation as a ‘manager or administrator’, confirming a recent trend for increasing numbers of these professionals (which include public servants) to enter Parliament. The legal profession, teaching, and farming are the other most prevalent occupational backgrounds for MPs – farmers were more common in the Parliaments of 1990-1996, while teachers have generally outnumbered farmers in Parliaments since. In 2011 about 10% of MPs were previously lawyers, about the average share in parliaments since 1990. About 8% of current parliamentarians were previously involved in the local government sector, double the average share of this sector in parliaments since 1990. The share of MPs who were previously union workers (4%) is the lowest in the 1990-2011 period, while the number of accountants, engineers, and media workers has remained in single figures over that time.
Voter Enrolment and Turnout
A total of 3.07 million people were enrolled to vote in the 2011 general election, or 93.7% of the estimated 3.27 million eligible voting age population (VAP) – about the average enrolment ratio for MMP elections since 1996, although below the record 97.2% of the VAP who were enrolled in 1981.
A total of 421,708 voters of Māori descent were enrolled – 233,100 (55%) were enrolled on the Māori roll and 188,608 (45%) were enrolled on the general roll.
Figure 7 shows that enrolment by age group is not uniform. For example, the 60+ age group is now the single largest voting cohort (821,500 voters), and in 2011 represented 25% of all voters, up from the 21% share this age group accounted for in 1996. The 60+ age group tends to enrol in proportion to its share of the voting age population. However, while eligible voters under 30 years represent just over one-fifth (22%) of the total voting age population, this age group accounts for over two-thirds (67%) of the total eligible voters who were not enrolled in 2011. In the context of the party vote, the 138,108 eligible voters under 30 who were not enrolled was the 5th largest bloc of voters – comparable to the level of support for the New Zealand First Party which received 147,544 valid party votes.
Figure 7: Age-Group Shares of VAP, Enrolment, Non-Enrolment
Figure 8 shows that voter turnout (total party votes cast as a proportion of enrolled electors) for the 2011 General Election was 74.2% overall, a decrease on the 79.5% overall turnout of those enrolled in 2008. As a measure of political participation, total voter turnout in New Zealand between 1981 and 2011 has averaged 84.5% – a high level of voter participation when compared with other Western democracies.
In FPP elections from 1981 to 1993, the average overall turnout was 88.9% while in MMP elections from 1996 to 2011 the average overall turnout was 80.8%.
Figure 8: Voter Turnout by Roll, 1981-2011
Voter turnout of those on the Māori roll generally falls below that of those on the general roll. In the 2011 election the turnout of those on the Māori roll was 58.2% – a decrease from the 2008 Māori roll turnout of 62.4%. The 2011 Māori roll turnout was the lowest in any election since the first Māori roll was compiled in 1949, apart from 2002 when it was 57.6%. The 2011 turnout was also below the average Māori roll turnout of 70.1% for elections between 1981 and 2011. MMP also does not appear to have increased voter participation by those on the Māori roll. About three quarters (75%) of those on the Māori roll voted on average in FPP elections between 1981 and 1993, while two thirds (65.6%) of these electors voted on average in MMP elections between 1996 and 2011.
Table 6 lists the electorates with the highest and lowest turnouts in 2011. Of the ten electorates with the highest turnouts (votes cast to enrolled electors), six are from the Wellington region. Eight of the ten electorates with the lowest turnout are from the Auckland region. As can be seen from Table 6, the general electorate with the lowest turnout (Botany) had a higher turnout than the Māori electorate with the highest turnout (Te Tai Tokerau).
The Referendum on the Voting System
At the same time as the general election, an indicative (non-binding) referendum was held to decide whether voters wished to retain the MMP voting system – and if not, which alternative voting system they preferred. The estimated cost of holding the 2011 referendum was $10.97 million, which included the cost of administering the referendum and conducting the public information campaign. As can be seen from Table 7 – which sets out the referendum results – 58% of the valid votes cast were to keep MMP, up from the almost 54% who supported MMP in the 1993 referendum. While support across North Island, South Island and general electorates increased by lesser amounts, support for MMP among Māori electorate voters increased significantly when compared to 1993. Support for MMP in 2011 was above 50% in 56 of the 70 electorates – Mangere was the general electorate with the highest level of support (76.7%); Clutha-Southland the lowest (44.6%).
As a consequence of the majority of voters electing to keep MMP, the Electoral Commission is now conducting a review of MMP and seeking public views on MMP, including:
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the 5% party vote threshold for a party to be eligible for allocation of list seats;
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the one electorate seat threshold for a party to be eligible for allocation of list seats;
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the overhang mechanism;
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the effects of population change on the ratio of electorate seats to list seats;
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the capacity of a person to be both a constituency candidate and list candidate;
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a party’s ability to determine the order of candidates on its party list and the inability of voters to rank list candidates in order of preference.
Selected References
Election Results – The New Zealand Electoral Commission, http://www.elections.org.nz/elections/resultsdata/
Enrolment Statistics – The New Zealand Electoral Commission, http://www.elections.org.nz/ages/
Final Results for the 2008 New Zealand General
Election
, John Wilson, Parliamentary Library Research Paper, 2008/05, December 2008, Parliamentary Library. http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/6/f/9/00PLLawrp08051-Final-Results-for-the-2008-New-Zealand-General-Election.htm
Parliamentary Voting Systems in New Zealand and the Referendum on MMP, John Wilson, Parliamentary Library Research Paper, 2011/03, November 2011, Parliamentary Library. http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/d/5/8/00PLLawRP11031-Parliamentary-Voting-Systems-in-New-Zealand-and-the.htm
The 2011 New Zealand General Election: Provisional Results, John Wilson, Parliamentary Library Research Paper, December 2011, Parliamentary Library. http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/5/7/a/00PLLawRP11041-The-2011-General-Election-Provisional-Results.htm
John Wilson, Research Analyst,
Parliament, Law and People Team,
Parliamentary Library
For more information, contact John.Wilson@parliament.govt.nz, or Tel: 817 9358.
Appendix 1: Members of Parliament by Electorate – Final Results
Final Results for the 2011 New Zealand General Election and Referendum [PDF 1004k]
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