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Date:
9 May 2012
Subject
Transport

3902 (2012). Julie Anne Genter to the Minister of Transport (09 May 2012): Further to the reply to question for written answer 3125, if fuel prices are used to forecast future traffic volumes, what fuel price in ($NZ 2012) was used in each future year that was modeled in the Puhoi to Wellsford business case?
Hon Gerry Brownlee (Minister of Transport) replied: The fuel prices used in the Auckland regional transport model, as applied to the Puhoi to Wellsford Road of National Significance business case, are (in $NZ 2012): • 2016: $2.97 per litre • 2026: $3.26 per litre Considering the price of fuel in isolation will lead to incorrect forecasts about future vehicle use. Other factors that influence vehicle use include: • land use development • improvements in vehicle efficiency • increases in public transport fares • value of the New Zealand dollar and volatility in fuel prices • increased use of alternative technology and fuels, eg, hybrid vehicles, LPG • increases in the average household income. Each of these factors reduces the impact of higher fuel prices on travel choices. The use of an 8 per cent discount rate by the NZ Transport Agency means that the fuel price in future years only has a minor impact on the business case for the project.