The 2014 New Zealand General Election: Final Results and Voting Statistics

Final Results after Special Votes

This research paper summarises differences between the preliminary (election night count) and final election results, compares the 2014 election result with 2011, and shows trends in voter turnout and the demographic makeup of the 51st Parliament. It concludes with some analysis of voter turnout by age figures, which for the first time, have been released by the Electoral Commission.

The General Election of 20th September 2014 was New Zealand’s 51st since general elections began in 1853, and the seventh election conducted under the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system. Following the counting of special votes and the release of the official results, there are seven political parties and 121 members represented in the 51st Parliament. An overhang of one seat has been created by the United Future Party winning one electorate; it would not otherwise have been entitled to any seats based on its 0.2 % share of the party vote.

Table 1 shows trends in the number of candidates, seats, and parties since 1996. It shows, for example, that the number of list only candidates contesting the 2014 election was the lowest in MMP elections to date. Also of note is that following the periodic redrawing of electoral boundaries by the Representation Commission (following each census), the number of available list seats has declined from 55 in 1996 to 49 in 2014 (50 temporarily as a result of the overhang).

The number of MPs per capita in 2014 was 2.7 per 100,000 people. This level of representation ranks New Zealand just below the 34 member OECD average of 2.8 MPs per 100,000 people for lower chambers. The average among the 15 OECD members with unicameral parliaments is somewhat higher at 4.4 MPs per 100,000 people; however New Zealand ranks close to the median among this group.

Table 2 shows the impact of the 300,915 valid special votes – accounting for about 14% of the votes cast in the 2014 general election – on the election night count. For example the Labour Party, the Māori Party and Internet-Mana saw incremental increases in the share of their party vote without altering their election night seat entitlement. Similarly, New Zealand First, the Conservative Party, the ACT Party and United Future saw the counting of special votes result in incremental change in their party vote share and no change to their seat entitlements.

Although special votes usually result in only minor changes to the parties’ final percentage share of the party vote, they can and do have substantial impacts on the final election outcome. In the 2014 election, although the National Party’s final share of the party vote dropped 1.02 percentage points to 47.04%, it resulted in the National Party’s initial allocation of 61 seats – an outright majority and provisionally the first under MMP – being reduced to a final entitlement of 60 seats. Consequently the National Party sought confidence and supply arrangements with its support partners in order to command a majority in Parliament. This one seat loss was a result of the increase in the Green Party’s share which rose 0.68 percentage points to 10.70%, allowing the Green Party’s initial allocation of 13 seats to increase to a final entitlement of 14 seats. The total number of MPs in Parliament was not affected by the counting of special votes.

Figure 1 shows the impact of special votes on the number of seats in MMP elections. In 1999, for example, the impact of special votes meant five parties and 14 seats were affected, resulting in the Labour-Alliance majority coalition government becoming a minority coalition government. Special votes in 1999 also affected the Green Party – which on election night had no seats in Parliament – entitling the Greens to seven seats (including an electorate seat). In 2005 special votes reduced the total number of MPs in Parliament from 122 to 121 and thereby reduced the threshold required for confidence and supply for the governing coalition parties.

Table 3 compares the 2011 election with those parties gaining parliamentary representation in 2014. New Zealand First was the only party to see an increase in both its party vote share (up 2.07 percentage points) and its seat entitlement (three more seats) between the two elections. The National Party lost 0.27 percentage points, but gained one more seat than in 2011. The Green Party, ACT New Zealand, and United Future all lost vote share but did not lose any seats. The Labour Party lost 2.35 percentage points and two seats; the Māori Party lost 0.11 percentage points and one seat when compared to 2011.

Party Vote Share and Parties in Parliament: 1981-2014

Under First-Past-the-Post (FPP) elections, from 1981 to 1993, the National Party averaged 40.3% of the vote while the Labour Party averaged 40.0%. Under Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) elections, from 1996 to 2014, the National Party has averaged 37.7% of the party vote which compares to the 33.7% average for the Labour Party. Figure 2 shows that the National Party’s share of the party vote in 2014 (47.0%) is the second-highest it has achieved under MMP. The Labour Party’s share of the vote in 2014 (25.1%) is the lowest it has achieved in any MMP election to date; it is the lowest vote share for the Labour Party in any election since 1922 when its 23.7% vote share was third-highest behind the Liberal and Conservative parties.

Across the seven MMP elections to date, for the other current parliamentary parties who have contested more than one election, the average party vote share has been: 7.7% for the Green Party; 7.6% for New Zealand First; 3.9% for ACT New Zealand; 1.8% for the Māori Party; and 1.8% for United Future.

The total vote share for the minor parties gaining representation in Parliament has doubled under MMP compared to FPP elections – from an average of 12% over the FPP elections from 1981 to 1993 to an average of 23.5% under MMP elections from 1996 to 2014. In 2014 the five minor parties gaining parliamentary representation obtained just below this average at 21.6% share of the party vote.

Under FPP elections, from 1981 to 1993, representation in Parliament was dominated by the two major parties, Labour and National. On average, these two parties captured 98% of the seats in Parliament from a combined average of 80% of the vote from 1981 to 1993. In MMP elections between 1996 and 2014, Labour and National together have, on average, won three-quarters (75%) of the seats in parliament from a combined average of 71% of the total party vote. In the 2014 election, the two major parties improved on this average, winning 76% of the seats between them (92 seats) from 72% of the total party vote.

Under FPP elections from 1981 to 1993 minor parties that gained parliamentary representation won about two seats on average each election – about 2% of the seats from an average of 12% of the vote. In MMP elections, from 1996 to 2014, minor parties that gained parliamentary representation won, combined, around 30 seats on average each election – or one-quarter (25%) of the seats from about one quarter (24%) of the vote. In the 2014 election, the minor parliamentary parties won 29 of the 121 seats (24%) from 22% of the vote – about the same average seat share under MMP, from slightly below the average vote shares for the minor parliamentary parties under MMP (see Figure 3).

The Electorates

All 71 electorate candidates who won their seats on election night were confirmed as the electorate representative after the counting of special votes. In Te Tai Tokerau, Kelvin Davis, (Labour) won the seat with a margin of 743 votes after a judicial recount.

Of the 71 electorate seats, a majority (41) were won by the National Party. The National Party lost the seat of Napier, but won the new seat of Upper Harbour. The Labour Party won 27 electorates, five more than the number of electorates it won in 2011, and did not lose any electorates to other parties. Labour won the newly re-drawn electorate of Kelston, the Napier electorate from National, Te Tai Tokerau from the Mana Party, and Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Mākaurau from the Māori Party. The Māori Party won the electorate of Waiariki, but lost two electorates (Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Mākaurau) to Labour. The ACT and United Future parties won one electorate seat each, the same number of electorates as those parties won in 2008 and 2011. Mana lost its only electorate seat of Te Tai Tokerau. The Green Party and New Zealand First did not win any electorate seats.

Of 71 electorates, 47 winning candidates won with a majority (over 50%) of the valid electorate votes, while 24 electorates were won with a plurality (less than 50%) of the valid electorate votes. The electorate with the lowest share of the electorate (candidate) vote was Ōhāriu, where Peter Dunne (United Future) won with 36.9% of the electorate vote. The electorate with the highest share of the electorate (candidate) vote was Māngere, where Sua William Sio (Labour) won with 72.5% of the electorate vote.

Table 4 below shows both the ten electorates with the highest winning margin over the second-placed candidate, and the ten electorates with the smallest winning margin. For example, Amy Adams (National) achieved the largest winning margin (20,561) in the Selwyn electorate in 2014; Nikki Kaye (National) had the lowest winning margin (600) in Auckland Central.

Demographic Makeup of the 51st Parliament

As a proportional representation system, MMP ensures that voters’ party preferences are proportionally reflected in the party composition of Parliament. This has resulted in a greater number of political parties gaining representation in Parliament than occurred under the FPP system. Indirectly, MMP has also contributed to achieving a Parliament that is more diverse and more representative of the New Zealand population as a whole; parties are able to choose candidates who resemble the electorate in terms of demographic characteristics such as gender, ethnicity, and age. Consequently, it is argued that “one central virtue of proportional systems is the claim that they are more likely to produce a Parliament which reflects the composition of the electorate”. [1]  

Until the 1980s, for example, the representation of women in Parliament rarely exceeded 5%. Figure 4 shows that on gender grounds, the representativeness of Parliament has increased significantly since the advent of MMP in 1996, although it still has some way to go before it reflects the gender balance in New Zealand society as a whole. There are 38 women MPs in the 51st Parliament, compared with the record 41 elected to the 49th Parliament in 2008. Overall, women comprise about one-third (31%) of the new Parliament.

Voter Enrolment

Over 3.14 million people were enrolled to vote in the 2014 general election, or 92.6% of the estimated 3.39 million eligible voting age population (VAP) – about the average enrolment ratio for MMP elections, although below the 95.3% of the VAP who were enrolled in 2008.

A total of 441,492 New Zealand voters of Māori descent were enrolled – 239,941 (54%) were enrolled on the Māori roll and 201,551 (46%) were enrolled on the general roll. Therefore 92.9% of the estimated Māori descent population of 475,100 were enrolled for the 2014 election – similar to the enrolment rate on the General Roll.

Figure 8 shows the differences in voting age population cohorts, enrolment, and non-enrolment by age group. For example, the 60+ age group is now the single largest voting cohort (898,320 voters), and in 2014 represented 27% of all voters, up from the 21% share this age group accounted for in 1993. By comparison, voters under 30 years now represent 22% of all voters, down from the 28% share this cohort accounted for in 1990.

Figure 8 also shows that enrolment by age group is not uniform. Voters aged over 40 years tend to enrol in proportion to their share of the total voting age population. However, while voters under 40 years comprise just over one-third (34.8%) of those enrolled, this cohort account for 80.5% of the quarter of a million people (250,683) who were not enrolled for the 2014 election.

Enrolment by electorate is also not uniform; it ranges from 75.1% in Auckland Central to 99.6% in Tauranga. The seven electorates with the lowest enrolment rates are also those with high student populations: Palmerston North (86.8% of the VAP enrolled); Christchurch Central (86.8%); Wellington Central (85.7%); Ilam (84.4%); Christchurch East (83.1%); Dunedin North (82.7%); Auckland Central (75.1%). [4]  

Voter Turnout

Figure 9 shows that voter turnout (total party votes cast as a proportion of enrolled electors) for the 2014 General Election was 77.9% overall, an increase on the 74.2% overall turnout of those enrolled in 2011. As a measure of political participation, total voter turnout in New Zealand between 1981 and 2014 has averaged 83.9% – a high level of voter participation when compared with other Western democracies. However, MMP does not appear to have increased voter turnout by those enrolled. In FPP elections from 1981 to 1993, the average overall turnout was 88.9%; in MMP elections from 1996 to 2014 the average overall turnout was 80.4%.

Turnout of the VAP (votes cast as a proportion of the total voting age population) was 72.1%; this is the second-lowest since the Second World War after the 69.6% turnout of the VAP in 2011. In total, almost a million people did not vote in 2014; 250,683 were not enrolled, while 694,120 were enrolled but did not turn out to vote.

In accordance with Section 8(1) of the Electoral Act 1993, the Electoral Commission must report within 6 months of the return of the writ (10 October 2014), on the administration and delivery of the 2014 General Election. [5]   Among other matters, the Commission must report on enrolment and voting statistics.

It is also usual for the Justice and Electoral Committee to hold an inquiry into each general election; the Committee initiated its inquiry in to the 2014 general election on 30th October 2014 and submissions close on the 31st March 2015. [6]  

The date for the next New Zealand general election can be no later than Saturday 18th November 2017.

Selected References

Election Results – The New Zealand Electoral Commission, http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/

Enrolment Statistics – The New Zealand Electoral Commission, http://www.elections.org.nz/ages/

2014 General Election Voter Turnout Statistics by Age Band – The New Zealand Electoral Commission , http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-results-and-reporting/2014-general-election-voter-turnout

Final Results for the 2011 New Zealand General Election and Referendum , John Wilson, Parliamentary Library Research Paper, 2012/02, March 2012, Parliamentary Library. http://www.parliament.nz/en-nz/parl-support/research-papers/00PLLaw2012021/final-results-for-the-2011-new-zealand-general-election

Parliamentary Voting Systems in New Zealand and the Referendum on MMP, John Wilson, Parliamentary Library Research Paper, 2011/03, November 2011, Parliamentary Library. http://ourhouse.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/9/0/f/00PLLawRP11031-Parliamentary-Voting-Systems-in-New-Zealand-and-the.htm

For voting, social, and economic statistics by electorate see the electorate profiles compiled by the Parliamentary Library at: http://www.parliament.nz/en-nz/mpp/electorates

Dr John Wilson, Research Services Analyst,

Parliament, Law and People Team,

Parliamentary Library

For more information, contact John.Wilson@parliament.govt.nz, or Tel: 817 9358.

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. In essence, you are free to copy, distribute and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to the Parliamentary Library and abide by the other licence terms. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/nz/.